Washington Insiders: It’s McCain vs. Hillary

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Washington Insiders: It’s McCain vs. Hillary

Rudolph Giuliani may presently be the people’s choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, but influential Washington insiders believe that when the general election rolls around, it will pit Hillary Clinton against John McCain, not Rudy.

The National Journal asked 220 Democratic and Republican insiders — members of Congress, party activists, consultants, fund-raisers, lobbyists, and interest-group leaders — to list and rank the top five contenders for their party’s 2008 nomination.

The results differed significantly from a similar National Journal survey in May. Back then, McCain led among Republicans, and Sen. George Allen of Virginia was second. After Allen’s election defeat in November, he has fallen out of the picture, and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken the No. 2 spot.

Among Democrats, Hillary led in May and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner was second. He too has fallen after announcing he won’t be a candidate, and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has now taken the second spot.

John Edwards placed third among Democrats in the new survey, while Al Gore was fourth and Evan Bayh fifth.

On the GOP side, Rudy Giuliani was third after McCain and Romney, followed by Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee.

“For the first time since National Journal’s initial 2008 presidential survey was conducted in April 2005, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia broke into the top five rankings,” the Journal disclosed.

“Allen’s defeat and departing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist’s recent decision not to run have created a huge opening for Gingrich.”

The survey also found that 33 percent of Democratic insiders believe Hillary Clinton’s gender would help her in the general election, while 28 percent think it would hurt, and 39 percent say it would have no impact.

Democratic insiders also believe that Barack Obama’s race would hurt him in the general election: 48 percent say it would hurt; 26 percent believe it would help; and the rest think it would have no impact.

A majority of Republican insiders — 52 percent — believe Mitt Romney’s Mormon religion would hurt him in the general election, and only 2 percent believe it would help; 46 percent say it would have no impact.